As a follow up to our oil outlook session in January, we aim to explore and take a deeper dive into the top risks to the oil and natural gas markets in 2024. Some of these risks are likely to include: (1) a continuation and even deepening of trade route distortions impacted by geopolitics (Suez Canal/Red Sea) – or the end of these distortions, as well as distortions related to climate change (Panama Canal); (2) the new China, its "real" level of growth and its inventory policies impacting imports of crude oil and exports of petroleum products; (3) Russia’s situation in global oil and gas markets and an evaluation of how the world adjusted to market distortions resulting from Western sanctions on Russia including on trade, financial controls and price caps; (4) Iran’s situation in regional politics and global markets, along with politically induced changes in the supply outlook for the remaining “Fragile Five” countries – Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela; and (5) new trade patterns coming from developments like the trans-Canada oil pipeline's 600 thousand barrels per day increase in pipeline capacity to the Pacific (along with an expansion of production and exports to the Pacific), with less Canadian crude entering PADDS II and III and much more entering the Pacific arena, including into PADD V, the opening of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and other market factors.
Ed Morse, Chair of the New York Energy Forum advisory board, will moderate a discussion with our panel of experts to explore these issues and the implications for the oil market.
This event will be a virtual session via Zoom from 12:00 PM until 1:30 PM EST. Additional details will be provided to registered attendees prior to the session.
SPEAKERS
Bruce Fulin
Bruce Fulin, Vice President of Crude Oil Business Development at Argus Media.
Scott Modell
Scott Modell, CEO of the Rapidan Energy Group, a leading Washington, DC-based consultancy specialized in energy markets, policy and geopolitics.
Elina Ribakova
Elina Ribakova, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics; nonresident fellow at Bruegel and director of the International Affairs Program and vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics.
MODERATOR
Ed Morse
Edward Morse Chairs the Energy Forum Advisory Board and is Special Advisor at Hartree Partners. Previously, he was Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi. He held similar positions at Lehman and Credit Suisse, taught at Princeton, Columbia and Johns Hopkins Universities, worked at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Policy, and in management at Phillips Petroleum. A co-founder of PFC Energy, a former publisher at Energy Intelligence, he also worked at Hess Energy Trading. As a consultant he helped design Yemen's oil pricing policy and assisted the UN Security Council on the design and negotiation of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food Program. He writes op-eds for the FT, NY Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post and often comments at Bloomberg TV and CNBC. He has been a Senior Fellow of both the USAEE and the IEEJ and was named by Petroleum Economist as among the ten most prominent individuals in energy finance.
PROGRAM
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM: Presentation and Discussion
COST
This session is complimentary for all registrants. Registration is required for event link details.